For those in emergency management, the last calendar year was an unusually busy and costly one. Of the more than 90 federally declared disasters in 2011, at least 12 generated costs of $1 billion or more.
Although most didn’t dominate the national news for very long (the exceptions perhaps being the tornadoes in Pascagoula, Ala., and Joplin, Mo.), the cumulative effect of these events was substantial. One outcome was the greatly increased workload for public-sector emergency management personnel, the insurance industry and other segments of society. A second outcome was the cost, which was especially noticeable in a year filled with congressional arguments over the national debt ceiling and the source of supplemental funding for disaster relief.
The year was unusual both in terms of frequency of disasters and each event’s high cost. In recent years, typically one or two large to catastrophic events have dominated the news – like 9/11, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010. Whether 2011 with its multiple billion-dollar disasters is a trend is hard to tell, but professional emergency planners and managers should be prepared for that possibility.
The National Climatic Data Center at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration compiled data, including total loss data, on the 12 billion-dollar disasters of 2011. The following information illustrates the historic nature of those disasters:
The Groundhog Day blizzard of Jan. 29 to Feb. 3 dumped one to two feet of snow across the Northeastern, mid-Atlantic, eastern and central states, resulting in 36 deaths. Total losses were more than $1.8 billion.
During the Midwestern/Southeastern tornadoes of April 4-5, 46 tornadoes affecting 10 states caused nine deaths, more than $2 billion in insured losses and exceeded $2.8 billion in total losses.
The Southeastern/Midwestern tornadoes of April 8-11 included an estimated 59 tornadoes across nine states that were responsible for numerous injuries but no deaths, and more than $2.2 billion in total losses.
On April 14-16, about 177 tornadoes across 10 states in the Midwest/Southeast resulted in 38 deaths. While few of those tornadoes were considered intense, they caused total losses greater than $2 billion.
The Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornadoes of April 25-30 were responsible for more loss of life than any of the preceding tornadoes of 2011. An estimated 343 tornadoes across 13 states caused 321 deaths. Several major metropolitan areas, including Chattanooga, Tenn.; and Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Huntsville, Ala., were directly affected by several strong tornadoes, which were responsible for $7.3 billion in insured losses and more than $10 billion in total losses.
The Midwestern/Southeastern tornadoes of May 22-27 resulted in total losses greater than $9.1 billion, more than $6.5 billion of which were in insured losses. More than 180 tornadoes caused at least 177 deaths; 160 of those deaths were in Joplin, Mo., in what was the single deadliest tornado to strike in the U.S. since modern tornado record keeping began in 1950.
An estimated 81 tornadoes and severe weather struck the Midwest and Southeast on June 18-22; losses exceeded $1.3 billion.
Spring through fall, drought, heat wave conditions and wildfires in the Southern Plains and Southwest affected Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arizona, southern Kansas, and western Louisiana and Arkansas. Direct losses to agriculture, cattle and structures totaled more than $9 billion.
Mississippi River flooding during the spring and summer resulted from persistent rainfall (nearly 300 percent of normal precipitation) combined with melting snowpack. Economic losses were estimated at $3 billion to $4 billion.
Upper Midwest flooding in the summer resulted in five deaths and estimated losses in excess of $2 billion. These floods were caused by the melting of an above-average snowpack across the northern Rocky Mountains combined with above-average precipitation.
Hurricane Irene made landfall on Aug. 20 as a Category 1 hurricane over North Carolina. Over the next nine days, it moved north along the coast, bringing torrential rainfall and strong winds while causing flooding across the Northeast. Losses were more than $7 billion; at least 45 deaths resulted from the storm.
Wildfires impacted Texas, New Mexico and Arizona during spring through fall, losses from which exceeded $1 billion.
The estimated economic damages from these events exceed $45 billion as of press time, making it likely that 2011 will be the costliest year for insured losses since records have been kept. Given that 2011 was the first year of the 21st century’s second decade, it’s clear that those responsible for emergency management and disaster planning must anticipate the future in a bolder, more proactive way than they have in the past. The historic events of last year demonstrated some unusually destructive characteristics, attracted significant media attention, and laid bare numerous deficiencies in the plans, systems and processes used in all phases of emergency management.
We now have some perspective on disaster trends in the United States for the first decade of the 21st century. During this period, the nation experienced three major to catastrophic disasters, providing milestone events for each of the three categories usually used to characterize U.S. disasters:
On Sept. 11, 2001, four terrorist attacks constituted the greatest man-made, intentional disaster that has ever occurred on the U.S. mainland.
In September 2005, two natural disasters, hurricanes Katrina and Rita, caused the greatest damage seen in the United States to date in terms of area affected and impacts on people and property.
In April 2010, the Gulf of Mexico oil spill resulted in the largest man-made, unintentional event ever to occur in the United States, with most of the damage affecting the Gulf Coast region.
The trend line for numbers of declared disasters has gone up steadily since 1988 (when presidents were given more authority in making declarations). This increase could be due to several factors – most notably, weather patterns and the political climate. Additionally in recent decades, more people have been moving to high-risk areas – areas that have historically been prone to natural disasters, such as coastal environments.
Another contributing factor could be the disaster declaration funding formula. When the president makes a disaster declaration, FEMA becomes responsible for at least 75 percent of the recovery costs. It’s possible that state and local responders are more aware of this today than they were in the past and are better at negotiating the process to receive federal funds to assist in recovery. Additionally it could be noted that both Congress and the president are likely to try to avoid the mistakes made during the Hurricane Katrina response, and a disaster declaration is a key indicator that the federal government is aware of the magnitude and scope of the event and is willing to help.
When talking about disasters, 2011 has been a significant year on its own – and the events of the year appear to be keeping with the noticeable upswing in the number of declared disasters in recent decades. Although it is too early to establish a firm trend line or pattern, as a nation we need to consider the following:
• Are large-scale disasters and catastrophes, events whose costs are measured in the billions of dollars, the new normal in the foreseeable future?
• If so, how should the emergency management community plan and prepare for such mega-disasters?
• Do we need to make changes, major or minor, to our policies, programs and response/recovery systems?
Should the threshold for a presidential disaster declaration be changed? (A staffer from the U.S. DHS Office of Inspector General recently noted that the formula hasn’t changed since 1999.)
• Should the preparation of a national risk assessment be given a higher priority?
• Should the DHS’ education and training programs give more attention to risk management for catastrophic natural disaster events?
• Will the Whole Community concept being promoted by the current administration at FEMA be essential? Is it adequate as now articulated?
The emergency management community seems to be entering new territory with respect to the scale, number, frequency and cost of disasters in the United States. It is essential that we’re prepared for the worst as we head into a new year.
Claire B. Rubin is president of Claire B. Rubin & Associates, a small firm based in Arlington, Va., that specializes in research and consulting in the fields of emergency management and homeland security. She is the author of several disaster timeline charts and the editor of a new history book, Emergency Management: The American Experience, 1900-2010. Jessica Hubbard is a research associate at Claire B. Rubin & Associates.